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Thu. 7/2/09, day 183 with 182 days left in 2009
Quotes below as of 10:00 AM (EDT)

Long Bond Yield : 4.32% - 10-year T Note : 3.50%
Fannie Mae 10 day delivery rate : 4.83%

30Y/Fannie yield spread : 51 BP
10Y/Fannie yield spread : 133 BP

30-Day moving average for delivery rate: 5.01%
10-Day Delivery rate a month ago : 4.84%
10-Day Delivery rate a year ago today: 6.15%

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Good Morning Lenders. The text that follows is only a partial 'thumbnail' of what appears in our publication Daily Economic Insights." Please see instructions below if you would like to see some free samples.

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“A stunning reversal of the jobs recovery.” That is how Bloomberg TV has characterized the employment report release this morning. Excuse us, but what idiot wrote that line? What job recovery? The economy is still experiencing rapid job losses. How can anyone suggest that because the economy lost only 467,000 jobs last month instead of the peak at 750,000 as good news? We suggest whoever wrote and delivered that line of thinking belongs in the ranks of the unemployed. We will do our critical analysis of the employment report along with our rate outlook for the upcoming week in today’s daily newsletter.

There were some other econonews releases this morning. Factory orders rose by more than expected in May at up 1.2%. Looking at the factor orders chart for the last ten years shows the trend line resembling the path of a bus driving off a cliff. We also heard that initial claims for jobless benefits came in close to expectations at 614,000 new initial claims for jobless benefits for the week ending 6/26. Do you call that an improving job situation?

The delivery rate is down only 2 BP relative to yesterday’s closing level at 4.83%. Stock price declines are intensifying and this could lead to greater improvements for the delivery rate. Where is the delivery rate (and the credit markets) likely to head from here? You can either read about it this morning in our Daily Edition of Economic Insights 2009, or wait until after the fact to find out, so… Stay tuned.

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