Wed. 4/16/14, day 106 with 259 days remaining in 2014
Quotes below as of 10:00 AM (EDT)
- Freddie Mac 10 day delivery rate : 3.88%
- Long Bond Yield : 3.48%
- Benchmark 10-Year T: 2.66%
-30Y/Fannie yield spread : +40 BP
-10Y/Fannie yield spread : +122 BP
- 30-Day moving average for delivery rate : 3.94%
10-Day Delivery rate a month ago today: 3.89%
- 10-Day Delivery rate a year ago today: 2.99%
* * * Precisely what the "Delivery Rate" is (besides the basis of most fixed rate loans) can be learned in our Glossary of Terms Used. * * *
Good Morning Lenders. The text that follows is only a partial 'thumbnail’ of what appears in our publication Daily Economic Insights. Please see the instructions below if you would like a free trial subscription.
Why do we think mainstream media reporting is largly worthless? The following was posted to the money.cnn.com website on 12/27/13. Notice the obvious contradiction between paragraphs 1 & 2:
"The benchmark U.S. Treasury note rose back to the highest levels of the year Thursday as investors see better times ahead for the economy.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to a high of 3%, the highest level since September. That's up from a low of 1.63% in May. Bond yields rise when prices fall."
This morning we are seeing another unusual market reaction to the data releases. The data was mixed, the Russian versus Ukraine situation is now a shooting affair and the world is breathing a sigh of relief that the economic data coming out of China is not as weak as anticipated. We’ll get into this in great detail in our daily newsletter this morning.
March housing starts came in higher than expected while new permits issued were below expectations. Both industrial production and factory capacity utilization in March were higher than expected. Lastly, new mortgage loan applications for the week ending 4/11 were up 4.3% with purchase apps up ~1% and refi apps up ~7%. More details will appear in our newsletter this morning.
The delivery rate (DR-the basis for most fixed rate home loans) opened the trading session at 3.88% this morning, just like yesterday morning. What is really driving the mortgage-backed securities market, which is what drives the DR (and home loan rates), and where are they likely to head from here? You can either read about it this morning in our Daily Edition of Economic Insights 2014, or wait until after the fact to find out, so… Stay tuned.
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There are no changes for
2014 conforming loan limits.
You can download a complete listing of all counties in the USA for their 'High Balance' conforming loan limits by clicking here. Fannie & Freddie no longer go up to $725,750 in higher priced markets.
The delivery rate & MBS Pricing for 1-month
Mortgage Bankers Association weekly new home loan
applications indices for the week ending 4/11/14
-Overall Index ~259.0: Up "about" 4.3% vs W/E 4/4 & Down "about" 58.99% vs same week a year ago.
-Purchase index: Up "about"1% versus prior week.
-Refinance index :Down "about" 7% versus prior week.
(release date Wed. 4-16-14)
We must say "about" because the Mortgage Bankers Assn has chosen to shield the actual numbers from everyone for some obscure and likely ridiculous reason. They began to obfuscate the hard data for Purchase and Refinance activity beginning in May 2012.
LATEST PRE-OWNED HOME SALES:
February’s Sales Pace 4.60 million homes sold (Down 0.4% from Jan 4.62 MM pace & Down 7.1% versus February 2013 pace of 4.95 MM)
NE Region 550,000 unit pace (Down 11.3% from Jan & Down 12.7% from February 2013’s pace)
Midwest Region 1.00 MM unit pace (Down 3.8 % from Jan 1.04 MM & Down 12.3%from February 2013’s pace)
South Region 1.98 MM unit pace (Up 1.5% from Jan 1.95 MM & Down 0.5% from February 2013’s pace)
West Region 1.07 MM unit pace (Up 5.9% from Jan pace of 1.01 MM & Down 10.1% from February 2013’s pace)
Release Date 3-20-14
LATEST NEW HOME SALES:
February’s Sales Pace 440,000 homes sold (Down 3.3% from Jan 455,000 pace & Down 1.5% versus February 2013 pace of 445k)
NE Region 23,000 unit pace (Down 32.4% from Jan & Down 34.3% from February 2013’s pace)
Midwest Region 67,000 unit pace (Up 36.7 % from Jan 49,000 & Up 1.5%from February 2013’s pace)
South Region 255,000 unit pace (Down 1.5% from Jan 259,000 & Up 19.7% from February 2013’s pace)
West Region 95,000 unit pace (Down 15.9% from Jan pace of 113,000 & Down 27.5% from February 2013’s pace)
Release Date 3-25-14
LATEST NEW HOUSING STARTS
March’s Annualized Starts: 946,000 units
(Up 2.8% from the revised 920,000 for February
and Down 5.9% from the 1,005,000 for March 2013)
Release date 4/16/14
NEW BUILDING PERMITS for March were 990,000
Down 2.4% from the revised 1,014 for February
and Up 11.2% from the 890,000 for March, 2013
Release date 4/16/14
NAHB HOME BUILDERS' INDEX:
March 2014 Overall index = 47 (Up 1)
- Present Sales = 52 (Up 1)
- Plans to Buy in 6 Mos = 53 (Down 1)
- Buyer Traffic = 33 (Up 2)
Release date 3/17/14
Home Loan Interest Rates WEEKLY CLOSING LEVEL: (as defined by the Fannie Mae & /or Freddie Mac delivery rates.)
Week Ending 4/11/14 = 3.85%; Down 13 BP
from 3.98% for the week ending 4/4/14