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Howard Blum and

The Financial News
& Information Service

800-273-9995


Tue. 4/22/14
, day 112 with 253 days remaining in 2014
Quotes below as of 10:00 AM (EDT)

- Freddie Mac 10 day delivery rate : 3.92%
- Long Bond Yield : 3.54
%
- Benchmark 10-Year T: 2.74%

-30Y/Fannie yield spread : +38 BP
-10Y/Fannie yield spread :
+118 BP

- 30-Day moving average for delivery rate : 3.93%
- 10-Day Delivery rate a month ago today: 3.96%
- 10-Day Delivery rate a year ago today: 2.98
%

* * * Precisely what the "Delivery Rate" is (besides the basis of most fixed rate loans) can be learned in our Glossary of Terms Used. * * *


Good Morning Lenders. The text that follows is only a partial 'thumbnail’ of what appears in our publication Daily Economic Insights. Please see the instructions below if you would like a free trial subscription.

Why do we think mainstream media reporting is largly worthless? The following was posted to the money.cnn.com website on 12/27/13. Notice the obvious contradiction between paragraphs 1 & 2:

"The benchmark U.S. Treasury note rose back to the highest levels of the year Thursday as investors see better times ahead for the economy.


The 10-year Treasury yield rose to a high of 3%, the highest level since September. That's up from a low of 1.63% in May. Bond yields rise when prices fall."


The “Wild, Wild West” not only exists in NV, but may also be alive and well in the NY trading pits. We got a weaker than expected housing report today. We also had a weaker than average auction of 2-year Treasury notes. The only two releases were tugging at the markets in opposite directions.

Pre-owned home sales for March were at the 4.59 Million annualized pace, down from 4.6 million in February. The FHFA home price index came in a tad higher than expected and then there was the Treasury auction results came along. We’ll share some more details with our subscribers in today’s daily newsletter.

The delivery rate (DR-the basis for most fixed rate home loans) opened the trading session at 3.92% this morning. What is really driving the mortgage-backed securities market, which is what drives the DR (and home loan rates), and where are they likely to head from here? You can either read about it this morning in our Daily Edition of Economic Insights 2014, or wait until after the fact to find out, so… Stay tuned.


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There are no changes for
2014 conforming loan limits.

You can download a complete listing of all counties in the USA for their 'High Balance' conforming loan limits by clicking here. Fannie & Freddie no longer go up to $725,750 in higher priced markets.


The delivery rate & MBS Pricing for 1-month


Mortgage Bankers Association weekly new home loan
applications indices for the week ending 4/11/14

-Overall Index ~259.0: Up "about" 4.3% vs W/E 4/4 & Down "about" 58.99% vs same week a year ago.
-Purchase index: Up "about"1% versus prior week.
-Refinance index :Down "about" 7% versus prior week.
(release date Wed. 4-16-14)


We must say "about" because the Mortgage Bankers Assn has chosen to shield the actual numbers from everyone for some obscure and likely ridiculous reason. They began to obfuscate the hard data for Purchase and Refinance activity beginning in May 2012.


 

LATEST PRE-OWNED HOME SALES:

March’s Sales Pace 4.59 million homes sold (Down 0.2% from Feb 4.60 MM pace & Down 7.5% versus March 2013 pace of 4.96 MM)

NE Region 600,000 unit pace (Up 9.1% from Feb & Down 4.8% from March 2013’s pace)

Midwest Region 1.04 MM unit pace (Up 4.0% from Feb 1.00 MM & Down 10.3%from March 2013’s pace)

South Region 1.92 MM unit pace (Down 3.0% from Feb 1.98 MM & Down 3.0% from March 2013’s pace)

West Region 1.03 MM unit pace (Down 3.7% from Feb pace of 1.07 MM & Down 13.4% from March 2013’s pace)

Release Date 4-22-14


LATEST NEW HOME SALES:

February’s Sales Pace 440,000 homes sold (Down 3.3% from Jan 455,000 pace & Down 1.5% versus February 2013 pace of 445k)

NE Region 23,000 unit pace (Down 32.4% from Jan & Down 34.3% from February 2013’s pace)

Midwest Region 67,000 unit pace (Up 36.7 % from Jan 49,000 & Up 1.5%from February 2013’s pace)

South Region 255,000 unit pace (Down 1.5% from Jan 259,000 & Up 19.7% from February 2013’s pace)

West Region 95,000 unit pace (Down 15.9% from Jan pace of 113,000 & Down 27.5% from February 2013’s pace)

Release Date 3-25-14





LATEST NEW HOUSING STARTS
March’s Annualized Starts: 946,000 units
(Up 2.8% from the revised 920,000 for February
and Down 5.9% from the 1,005,000 for March 2013)
Release date 4/16/14



NEW BUILDING PERMITS for March were 990,000
Down 2.4% from the revised 1,014 for February
and Up 11.2% from the
890,000 for March, 2013
Release date 4/16
/14


NAHB HOME BUILDERS' INDEX:

March 2014 Overall index = 47 (Up 1)
- Present Sales = 52 (Up 1)
- Plans to Buy in 6 Mos = 53 (Down 1)
- Buyer Traffic = 33 (Up 2)
Release date 3/17/14


 


Home Loan Interest Rates WEEKLY CLOSING LEVEL: (as defined by the Fannie Mae & /or Freddie Mac delivery rates.)

Week Ending 4/17/14 = 3.91%; Up 5BP
from 3.86% for the week ending 4/11/14

 

"Economic Insights is the ultimate resource for bond market analysis, interest rate and economic forecasting."

Economic Insights is produced on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis for subscribers. When you need to know the potential direction of bond yields, interest rates, the housing market, the economy and why they are headed that way, you need to subscribe to Economic Insights from The Financial News & Information Service. The forecasting and the perspectives of Howard Blum and The Financial News & Information Service have been heard and appreciated by many members of the news media, financial industry professionals, investors and members of the real estate industry since the late 1980's.

The personalized newsletters for businesses and individuals in loan originating, wholesale lending, title and escrow, real estate sales and related industries are considered by many to be some of the best available today. If your business could use a 'content driven' newsletter as a marketing piece that takes complex economic concepts and explains them in simple to follow terms without using 'econo-babble', you should become a private label subscriber.

If you are a banker, mortgage banker, investment professional, individual investor, home loan originator, mortgage broker, title & escrow marketing representative or a real estate professional, you need the newsletters from the Financial News & Information Service and the information in the publications Economic Insights™ and the Private Label newsletters to enhance the quality of the marketing you send to your clients, customers, prospects or to help you manage your own investments with perspective not heard in the mainstream press.

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