Fri. 12/6/13, day 339 with 26 days remaining in 2013
Quotes below as of 10:00 AM (EDT)
- Freddie Mac 10 day delivery rate : 4.08%
- Long Bond Yield : 3.90%
- Benchmark 10-Year T: 2.86%
-30Y/Fannie yield spread : +18 BP
-10Y/Fannie yield spread : +122 BP
- 30-Day moving average for delivery rate : 3.90%
10-Day Delivery rate a month ago today: 3.81%
- 10-Day Delivery rate a year ago today: 2.66%
* * * Precisely what the "Delivery Rate" is (besides the basis of most fixed rate loans) can be learned in our Glossary of Terms Used. * * *
Good Morning Lenders. The text that follows is only a partial 'thumbnail’ of what appears in our publication Daily Economic Insights. Please see the instructions below if you would like a free trial subscription.
This morning the mainstream media are trumpeting the job creation figures as the end of the employment crisis. Really? When the headlines hit the newswires about job creation and the falling unemployment rate, the Treasury market saw their opening price gains do an about face and drop like a rock in water. Once people read “the devil in the details” prices in the credit markets did another about face and is now in positive territory. The mainstream media is sticking to their flawed coverage of the situation. We’ll have more to say about what is behind headlines in today’s daily along with our outlook for rates in the upcoming week.
New jobs created in November were at 203k after the original October figure of 204k jobs created was revised down to 200k. Backing out government jobs only 196k jobs were created by the private sector. The ‘official’ unemployment rate fell to 7.0% and unlike recent positive reports, the markets did not go into a “Taper Tantrum” (credit due to Bloomberg TV for coining that phrase). The University of Michigan’s initial consumer sentiment index reading catapulted much higher than anyone expected. Personal income in November fell by 1/10% while personal consumption rose by 3/10%. We’ll dig into the reports and share what we see in today’s daily newsletter.
The delivery rate (DR-the basis for most fixed rate home loans) opened the trading session at 4.08% this morning. We are poised to close the week with a 1/8% rise for home loan rates. What is really driving the mortgage-backed securities market, which is what drives the DR (and home loan rates), and where are they likely to head from here? You can either read about it this morning in our Daily Edition of Economic Insights 2013, or wait until after the fact to find out, so… Stay tuned.
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There are no changes for
2013 conforming loan limits.
You can download a complete listing of all counties in the USA for their 'High Balance' conforming loan limits by clicking here. Fannie & Freddie no longer go up to $725,750 in higher priced markets.
The delivery rate & MBS Pricing for 1-month
Mortgage Bankers Association weekly new home loan
applications indices for the week ending 11/29/13
-Overall Index ~272.3: Down "about" 12.8% versus W/E 11/22 &
Down 57.96% versus the same week a year ago.
-Purchase index: Down "about"4% versus prior week.
-Refinance index : Down "about"18% versus prior week.
(release date Wed. 12-4-13)
We must say "about" because the Mortgage Bankers Assn has chosen to shield the actual numbers from everyone for some obscure and likely ridiculous reason. They began to obfuscate the hard data for Purchase and Refinance activity beginning in May 2012.
LATEST PRE-OWNED HOME SALES:
Oct’s Sales Pace 5.12 million homes sold (Down 3.2% from Sept 5.29 MM pace & Up 6.0% versus Oct 2012 pace of 4.83 MM)
NE Region 670,000 unit pace (Down 2.9% from Sept & Up 11.7% from Oct 2012’s pace)
Midwest Region 1.22 MM unit pace (Down 1.6 %from Sept 1.24 MM & Up 8.0% from Oct 2012’s pace)
South Region 2.06 MM unit pace (Down 1.9% from Sept 2.10 MM & Up 7.3% from Oct 2012’s pace)
West Region 1.17 MM unit pace (Down 7.1% from Sept pace of 1.29 MM & Down 0.8% from Oct 2012’s pace)
Release Date 11-20-13
LATEST NEW HOME SALES:
October’s Annualized Sales Pace 444,000 homes in contract (not closed) (Up 7.9% from Sept. revised 390,000 pace & Up 12/6% from August 2012’s 374,000 pace)
NE Region 31,000 unit pace (Up 19.2% from Sept 26,000 pace & Up 29.2% from October 2012’s pace)
Midwest Region 63,000 unit pace (Up 34.0% from Sept 47,000 & Up 21.2% from October 2012’s pace)
South Region 259,000 unit pace (Up 28.2% from Sept 202,000 & Up 41.5% from October 2012’s pace)
West Region 91,000 unit pace (Up 15.2% from Sept 79,000 & Down 14.2% from October 2012’s pace)
(release date 12-4-13)
LATEST NEW HOUSING STARTS
August’s Annualized Starts: 891,000 units
(Up 0.9% from the revised 883,000 for June
and Up 18.8% from the 750,000 for August 2012)
Release date 9/18/13
There was no October release due to the government shutdown.
NEW BUILDING PERMITS for October were 1,034,000
Up 6.2% from the revised 974,000 for September
and Up 13.9% from the 908,000 for October, 2012
Release date 11/26/13
NAHB HOME BUILDERS' INDEX:
Nov 2013 Overall index = 54 (Unchanged)
- Present Sales = 58 (Unchanged)
- Plans to Buy in 6 Mos = 60 (Down 1)
- Buyer Traffic = 42 ((Down 1))
Release date 11/18/13
Home Loan Interest Rates WEEKLY CLOSING LEVEL:
(as defined by the Fannie Mae & /or Freddie Mac delivery rates.)
Week Ending 12/6/13 =4.04%; Up 12 BP
from 3.92% for the week ending 11/29/13